The list price illusion

Hey friends,

San Diego homes sold $14,000 below asking price in 2025 and I've mapped every price reduction in your neighborhood to show you exactly what's happening.

I've analyzed 30,000+ transactions and built three realistic scenarios for where the 2026 market is headed.

In this week's Scoop, you'll get:

• The base/bull/bear rate forecasts with action steps for each

• Zip-code breakdown showing which areas took the biggest price cuts

• The one metric that matters more than median prices

Here's what you need to know from the past week...

The Motivation Monitor

Check out this week’s here: 3 JAN 2026 Motivation Monitor

Days on Market Story: The average property has been sitting for 61 days before reducing. Interestingly, 17 properties reduced in their first 30 days (aggressive pricing or market reality check), while only 4 have been languishing beyond 120 days—suggesting those who wait too long eventually capitulate hard (averaging $99,975 reductions).

The Luxury Struggle: Properties over $2M are getting hammered—average 12.62% reductions. The $1.5M-$2M segment is also struggling (5.44% average reduction). Meanwhile, sub-$500K properties are seeing 6.36% reductions, which tells me affordability pressures are hitting both ends of the market differently.

Geographic Hotspots:

• Ramona (92065): 6 properties averaging $57,533 reductions — notably that $1.8M Bluegrass Road property took a $250K haircut

• Fallbrook (92028): 4 properties averaging $71,250 reductions — higher-end market showing weakness

Get the Motivation Monitor Here →

Real Estate Market Snapshot (2025 Closeout)

Single family homes settled this past year. In the headlines you’ll read about a 2% year-over-year (YoY) increase but that isn’t really telling of what actually happened.

The LIST price went up 2.3% YoY but the sold price only went up by 0.5% with homes staying on the market longer.

Condos and Townhomes really took a beating in 2025.

My Overall Take and Way Forward

The statistic to pay attention to is the list price to sale price ratio.

At the end of the day, list price is just an offering whereas the sold price is what really matters.

In 2024, homes sold $5,000 more than the list price for singe family homes and equal to list price for condos/townhomes.

In 2025, single family homes sold for $14,000 less than the list price and $5,000 less for condos and townhomes.

Regardless if you’re buying or selling, price to the comparable listing.

2026 Real Estate: Three Scenarios to Watch

Nobody knows exactly where interest rates will land this year, so I'm giving you three realistic scenarios instead of one shaky prediction.

The Base Case (50% likely): Rates stay steady in the mid-6% range. We'll see 2-3% price growth, 2-3 months of inventory, and a continued seller's market. Good homes still move fast, but you won't face bidding wars on everything.

The Bull Case (30% likely): Rates drop below 6%. Think 2019 energy—multiple offers return, prices jump 4-8%, and buyers need to move quickly or miss out.

The Bear Case (20% likely): Rates climb above 7%. Days on market increase, negotiations favor buyers, and prices stay flat or dip slightly.

Whether you're buying or selling, you can prepare for all three. The full breakdown includes specific action steps for buyers and sellers in each scenario.

Read the full 2026 market forecast →

Happenings

San Diego International Auto Show | Jan 4 | 10:00 AM – 7:00 PM | San Diego Convention Center
It's the ultimate "Sunday Funday" for families and gearheads to explore the newest EVs and exotics in a climate-controlled setting.

Skating by the Sea | Daily through Jan 5 | Hotel del Coronado
This is the final chance for couples to experience the magic of ice skating on a beachside rink with a world-famous Victorian backdrop.

soundON Festival of Modern Music | Jan 8 – 10 | Athenaeum Music & Arts Library, La Jolla
An intimate and intellectually stimulating date night featuring world-class contemporary chamber music in a historic venue.

14th Annual San Diego Brew Fest | Jan 10 | 12:00 PM – 4:00 PM | NTC Park at Liberty Station
Perfect for young couples and groups, this festival features 70+ breweries and the city's best food trucks in a sprawling outdoor park.

Monster Jam | Jan 10 | 5:00 PM | Snapdragon Stadium
A high-octane, family-favorite event where kids (and kids-at-heart) can watch 12,000-pound trucks perform gravity-defying stunts.

North Park Coffee & Tea Fair | Jan 10 | 12:00 PM – 4:00 PM | North Park Mini Park
A trendy and cozy way for visitors to mingle with locals while sampling the best roasts from San Diego's most artistic neighborhood.

I hope you found this useful. If you have any questions, don't hesitate to ask. Have a great weekend!

Cheers,
Ian

DRE 01858943